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Analysts predicted the EUR/USD reversal and decline to the levels of 1,1375, 1,1350 and 1,1320. If at the beginning of the week the pair started with the values of 1,1432, then the end of the week ended at the mark of 1,1350. The prediction was correct. Wednesday was the most productive day for news. Thus, in Japan, an activity index was released in all sectors of the economy, which estimates the expenses of large enterprises in all areas except financial. A meeting of the European Central Bank. In addition, the European Commission announced a decision on the Italian budget. Because of Thanksgiving in the USA, there was a lull in the markets. The same was preceded by "Black Friday" - the day of sales.
Making a forecast for cryptocurrency for the past week, analysts were divided in opinion: a neutral option and a very bad scenario. So, most of all were inclined to the first scenario development scenario. According to it, the market will pause. The main pairs will stop in the range between the minimum values of the last week and the maximum marks on Friday. In the worst case scenario, BTC/USD will go to $5,000. If a breakdown occurs, it will lead to a mass sale. So, for example, on November 20th, the main cryptocurrency broke through the level of 5900, having updated the 13-month minimum. The next day, the BTC/USD pair continued to decline to 4, 662.6. After such a dynamic, all analysts have already begun to predict a further fall to 4,000. The conclusion suggests the following: the market has not had truly positive news for a long time.
The price of Brent crude showed growth on Monday morning, bargaining near the mark of $67,4 per barrel. This happened at the time of expectations of cuts in production by both OPEC and other countries. Market fears caused reports that production could be reduced by 1,4 million barrels per day. This should help balance the oil market. It is worth noting that concerns about the decline in demand for "black gold" continue to be relevant. So, this is influenced by the ongoing conflict between the United States and China. The price of WTI crude oil indicates the presence of a bearish trend - $57,68 per barrel.
In the gold market, a favorable situation arose, as prices were fixed with a plus sign. The growth of gold, most likely, provoked experiences about the growth prospects of the global economy. True, most foreign analysts believe that it is not particularly profitable for investors to expect something from the market in the short term. Trading week is short due to Thanksgiving. By the end of the week, the course focused on the value of 1,222 dollars. This is 1% higher compared to last week. Of course, analysts note the potential of gold in the near future. But at the same time they doubt that the market will be in a bullish trend.
The big day of the week was Wednesday, November 14. So, in the morning in Japan data on the GDP dynamics for the third quarter of 2018 came out. Following was expected news from the UK: the output of inflation data on consumer prices over the past month. Closer to the evening, the same data should have appeared from the United States. The US dollar strengthened at the end of the trading week, thanks to the maintenance of the interest rate at the same level. Of course, Brexit became an important news. So, on November 15, the British Brexit Minister of Justice, Dominique Raab, retired. The currency pair strengthened in the region of $1,1300, and the next rose to $1,1343.
The end of the week was marked by the fall of the main cryptocurrency. So, on Thursday, November 15, the BTC/USD reached a mark of 5,648. Market participants were waiting for a breakthrough, but instead there was a failure. Many people remembered last year, when Bitcoin also dropped to 5300, but then began a breakthrough. Analysts do not rule out the repetition of the current situation.
Starting from Monday, oil prices continue to decline. Thus, the Brent oil dropped below $65, repeating the March 2018 result. The cost of "black gold" brand WTI stopped at $60.16 per barrel. Oil is in a bearish trend. Therefore, analysts forecast that there would be a rise toward values 63,40, and then — a second decline. On Friday, November 16, oil began to rise in price, showing a drop in the week's results. For the WTI brand, this is the sixth successive fall. The market continues to worry about overproduction of oil. Thus, OPEC expects that demand for its oil will decrease, therefore, most likely, will be followed by a decline in exports. It is worth noting that on December 6 OPEC will hold a meeting in Vienna.
The current week proved to be difficult for the metal. So, for several days in a row, he was under the pressure of the dollar. So, November 12, metal lost about 0.5%. However, the following days, gold recovered: the metal broke through to levels 1,215. Market participants expected the appearance of a bullish trend, but analysts noted that this scenario could only be considered when raising the level above the 1,215 mark. The recovery of the dollar began after a weakening of the dollar. Gold is also expected to climb to a mark of $ 1,250 or even higher. This will be facilitated by the slowdown in the sale of assets of the Fedreserv in early 2019.
Last week, the EUR/USD currency pair was forecasting a stronger dollar. (55% of experts against 45%). It is worth noting that it came true at 100%. In early November, the market sharply increased interest in risky investments. This was influenced by the information on the progress in the negotiations on Brexit. The pair eventually climbed to 1,1455. After that, the market waited for news regarding the US labor market. The pair finished the week entrenched at 1,1390. Beginning on November 5, the mid-term elections in the USA were the most talked about event. Most analysts predicted a rise in the pair to values of 1,1480-1,1525.
Experts are increasingly saying that the market is practically in a "sleep" mode. However, the numbers say the opposite: for example, the total capitalization is $ 200 billion, and the number of transactions reaches 250,000 per day. This suggests that traders do not give up the digital currency. Analysts predict another rise in value. At the moment, a pair of BTC / USD forecast movement in the range of $ 6,200-6,660.
Gold is still holding around $ 1212 per troy ounce. At the moment, the metal is held in this position due to conflicts in the Middle East. Otherwise, the situation for gold is not very favorable. Investors will likely give preference to US government debt rather than metal.
Sanctions against Iran have already begun to act, and the cost of oil still continues to decline. The USA made an exception only for eight countries: China, Greece, Italy, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Japan. A number of restrictions will lead to a subsequent reduction in oil exports: in Iran, it has decreased by more than 1 mbd. A purpose for oil brand Brent $ 71-72 dollars per barrel.
Discussing the events of last week, analysts noted that nothing will affect significantly the market. Everything happened exactly this way: the statements of the ECB head Mario Draghi and the release of data on US GDP remained almost unnoticed. About 70% of the experts voted for the dollar growth, which also came true: the dollar strengthened against the euro by about 200 points. After collecting various data, analysts continue to predict the subsequent strengthening of the dollar. But at the same time they were divided: 55% vs.45%. Euro growth could have been affected by the release of the 3rd quarter GDP data for the Eurozone. The growth of the dollar can give data on the labor market, which will be released on November 2nd on Friday.
If we talk about the number of requests regarding Bitcoin, then it decreased by 93%. It can be concluded that investors are no longer so actively interested in both the main cryptocurrency and the market as a whole. For the market to come to life, we need to wait for really important news. Otherwise, the BTC/USD cryptocurrency pair will remain in a bearish trend.
Already at the very beginning of the week, "black gold" was influenced by several negative factors at once. For example, drilling activity continues to grow. This suggests that production at shale deposits will increase. Due to Donald Trump's statements regarding a trade agreement with China, risky assets are growing. However, to say that oil can rise above the level of 80 is too early.
The cost of gold was adjusted for the third day in a row. The main reason is a fairly strong dollar. The last four weeks have been successful for gold with respect to growth. However, at the beginning of this week, the situation has changed dramatically. At the same time, analysts say that the growth of gold can still continue.
The weekly level of the position reversal for the euro/dollar pair is 1.1428. Thus, the closing price of the week - 1.1401 was below the closing level of the previous week (1.1512) as well as below the weekly reversal level. In the medium term, it indicated the influence of the downward trend in the price dynamics of the pair.
Quotes of WTI crude oil fell sharply in the beginning of the week and reached a local minimum at $65.76 per barrel. After that, crude oil was traded in this range and has reached $67.60. Prices eventually fell, which was the third week of decline in a row.
A correction in the stock market will also trigger additional demand for gold. On the other hand, the positive trend in prices will be moderate on the background of expectations of growth rates.
The entire previous week, the cryptocurrency #1 showed extremely sluggish dynamics, creating tension about further actions of market participants. On large timeframes, such movements of the coin looked like a strong contraction, which often portends impulsive movement.
Since Wednesday last week, the EUR/USD currency pair has shown a significant drop in prices to 1.1536 and 1.1505. The European currency was unable to stop the trend, relying on negative data from the US regarding the issued building permits and crude oil reserves. Several scenarios predicted the course: a further decline to 1.1475 and a rise above 1.1505. The end of the week was quite calm, despite the abundance of important news. The main one, of course, is the murder of journalist Jamal Hashoggi.
The cryptocurrency market almost froze last week, despite even the negative news. For example, in the United States reacted with concern to the mining of the main part of BTC and ETH in China. The main cryptocurrency was forecast to drop to $6,700.
Oil in the week shows a downward trend. At the same time, on Monday, November 15, a fixation of $71 per barrel was expected. On Monday, WTI crude oil continued to grow, showing $71.80 per barrel. All week, oil was influenced by the tragic event — the disappearance of the Saudi journalist Jamal Hashukji. The United States responded by initiating the issue of imposing sanctions on Saudi Arabia. The community, of course, expected a natural increase in value, but in the end this did not happen. It can be said that the market did not pay much attention to the scandal. This immediately showed that geopolitical news does not particularly affect the market. However, quotes for some time showed growth, entrenched above $ 81 a barrel.
Metal, rising above the mark of 1200 dollars, stopped. Gold traditionally grows when the dollar is falling against the euro. Thus, metal becomes an attractive asset in which investors prefer to invest. Metal growth is predicted in the future to $1245 and $1255 per ounce.
While volatility increased in global markets, there were no significant changes in the foreign exchange market. So, analysts forecast that a certain increase in the volatility of the euro will be influenced by the flow of news from the European Union. Last week, the USD / EUR currency pair adhered to the range of 1.1430-1.1630. At the same time, trades can become more active due to the news background: elections in Bavaria, budget problems in Italy and discussion of the Brexit topic at the upcoming EU summit.
Due to the monthly publication of OPEC and IEA last week, oil prices have steadily declined. The fall of Brent and WTI was almost 4%. So, investors remain in suspense due to the potential decline in global oil demand. Despite the fact that oil production in Venezuela and Iran is falling, the IEA says that it is not a question of reducing global oil supplies.
Along with the fall in US stocks, gold has passed a key resistance level. Investors, having heard the statement that the dollar will reach a maximum mark, decided to steer clear from risks. The first resistance level of gold was $1210 per ounce. Neutral forecast changed "bullish". With continued attention to bonds, low growth and a halt in dollar growth, the metal can recover to the level of $ 1,300 per ounce at the end of 2018.
The main cryptocurrencies for a sufficiently long period did not show much growth due to the absence of any significant news. But later negative news played a role, stopping calm. For example, BTC fell sharply by $300 on Thursday, which affected the cost reduction and other cryptocurrencies. EOS got into the center of the scandal, due to the alleged collusion between the Asian exchanges and the block-producers of currency. But at the same time, the statement of the International Monetary Fund, that digital money is a threat to the global economy, did not cause a decline in the price of currencies. It was about cyber-attacks, which represent an additional risk of digital money. The positive news was the message that the famous football player Ronaldinho released his own cryptocurrency — RS coin.
The price of the main cryptocurrency is firmly established at the level of $6550, which indicates a certain regularity. At the moment, the graph shows the mark of $6650. So, the reason for such inactivity is the lack of important news that could affect the change in value. Analysts offer investors to wait for more favorable market conditions.
The results of the week showed that Brent crude oil went up by 1.7% to $ 84.2 per barrel. On Monday morning (10/08/2018) breaking the level of $ 86.6 per barrel. last week, now the price has dropped to $ 83.5 per barrel. The decline in prices was caused by reports that the US could make concessions in relation to some countries that purchase oil from Iran. For example, there are business partners in Tehran, reducing purchases of Iranian oil. In addition, the statement of Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, that the country has free oil-producing capacity influenced it.
The S&P 500 stock index ends the trading week near the 2889 mark. Analysts predict an attempt to reverse the price and further development of the bullish trend. Growth is possible to the level of 3025. Raising the minimum salary in Amazon to $15 caused a wave of protest in other companies. Utilities did not save the S&P 500 index from falling 1% per week to 2,885.57 after this event. It is worth noting that the company's showed the largest price increase among the stocks of companies included in the S&P 500 index from the end of this year to the current moment. Exactly a year ago, the cost was $ 1,200, and now it’s already $ 1,823.29.
The precious metals market shows no significant changes. Gold remains at $ 1,200 per troy ounce. This is caused by some factors. Applying aggressive US Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates. At the same time, the demand in Asia is growing due to the growing trade war between the USA and China.
The value of the US dollar rises against major currencies after a Friday report from the US Labor Department on employment in September. For example, they noted the emergence of 134,000 new workspaces, although they initially predicted a different figure — 185,000. The consequences of hurricanes raging in the US in September affected this.
It should be noted that about 55% of experts voted for the growth of the pair and its transition to the zone 1.1745-1.1845. The forecast was justified by 100%. The weekly maximum of the pair was fixed at the elevation of 1.1802. Total, there was a rise in five days by 180 points. The dollar weakened due to the hope that a full-scale trade war between China and the US will not happen.
The forecast for oil prices BRENT this week suggests an attempt to test the resistance area near the level of 81.00. Analysts expect a rebound and the possibility of falling oil to a mark of 72.50.
Analysts were not mistaken in the forecasts: bitcoin still stayed between $6,000 and $7,000. It was assumed that the completion of the week was to bring positive news for all coin holders from the TOP-100. However, the growth of the Ethereum (ETH/USD) or Litecoin (LTH/USD) was not strong. In this case, XRP surprised, rising in price by almost 45%. Its take-off was influenced by the potential launch of a new product from Ripple, as well as their entry to the largest market in Asia.
The end of the trading week for the EUR/USD currency pair stopped at 1.1706. Analysts expect an attempt to develop correction and support area test near the level of 1.1480. It is also expected that the pair will continue to grow to 1.2110 .
This week forecast for oil prices (BRENT) suggests an attempt to test the resistance area near the level of 79.90. There is a probability of a rebound and a drop in oil to a level of 71.50.
The mid-term upward correction stopped at resistance levels 1204 - 1213. The result of long tests is the presence of bounces down.
The trading situation relative to the main cryptocurrency remains unchanged — the support level is near the mark 5940.