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The beginning of the month for the currency pair was at around 1.1595. The focus was on the events of Italy, and specifically — to address the situation with the budget. In addition, the dollar continued to strengthen. Both of these factors had an impact on reducing the cost of the pair. An important event in October was the statement of Angela Merkel about his resignation in 2021 from the post of chancellor. This made the price swing in different directions. The speech of the head of the EBT, Mario Draghi at the press conference, on the contrary, did not cause a significant market reaction. The fact is that analysts put forward similar forecasts.
Within three weeks, the cost of crude oil brands Brent and WTI significantly decreased. So, if you go back to the beginning of October, oil was trading at $ 86, thus breaking the record for four years. But now the figures do not rise above $ 76 per barrel. Strong pressure on the market had a collapse of US stock markets. Sales have influenced the decision of investors to choose safer assets. In addition, the protracted trade dispute between Washington and Beijing and the slowdown in global economic growth have affected it. Previously, investors were more worried about the oil shortage due to the introduction of US sanctions against Iran. Now this question is no longer so acute. Analysts believe that the expected increase in oil is not worth it.
If we talk about the difficult stages for the metal, then it was the second and third quarter of 2018. It was during this period that gold was affected by the growth of the US dollar and the growth of the stock market. An analyst at the precious metals market, Martin Murenbuild, said this during a conference in Toronto. However, now the situation is quite the opposite for gold: instability in stock markets is pushing investors to pay attention to gold again. Therefore, now selling metal is not a profitable solution. On the contrary, experts recommend having in the investment portfolio from 5% to 10% in gold. This insurance in a situation of correction of stock markets. The following news influences: budget crisis in Italy, trade wars and events in Saudi Arabia. Now the focus is on risk-free assets.
The most important cryptocurrency has been falling for several months in a row, despite hints of a bullish reversal. For example, on October 19, trading volumes declined from $ 5 billion to $ 3.8 billion. However, during the month there were events that forced the cryptocurrency market to react. One of these events was the sharp rise in the price of BTC on the Bitfinex exchange — from $ 6,300 to $ 7,500. At the same time on the main cryptocurrency exchanges such, a rush was not observed: the price remained at around $ 6,700. The end of the month was marked by a slight price reduction, which indicated a decline in investor interest in the market.
In late August, the US dollar behaved quite ambiguously. So, against some currencies, it showed an increase, and against the rest - a sharp drop. And if at the beginning of the month there was a steady growth, then a fall occurred later. The currency returned for historical resistance levels of 95.20 - 94.90.
WTI crude oil futures for September on electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell $ 0.33 (0.49%) to $ 66.48 a barrel. Usually, the demand for oil rises in summer as the period of active driving begins. In the fall, on the contrary, a downward trend is observed. This was reported in his report by the chief oil analyst at Societe Generale (PA: SOGN) - Michael Wittner. It is worth noting that the prices for oil of Brent and WTI varieties have reached high levels since November 2014. So, the company FactSet reports that in September Brent oil rose in price by 6.5%, and WTI - by 3.6%. Growth was affected by sanctions from the Donald Trump administration against Iran. Analysts suggest that the volume of oil supplies from Iran could be reduced by 1.5 million barrels per day.
The beginning of September was marked by the growth of the cryptocurrency market. The activity was largely influenced by world news: testing of the Mastercard non-cash transfer service, the offer of the service for buying and selling BTC, ETH and LTC. In addition, institutional investors have shown interest. But at the same time, if until the middle of the month BTC was growing steadily, then during the week (from September 24 to October 1) it dropped in price to 6601. The sale was affected by the sale of the manager MT. Gox. Positive dynamics in the market was formed thanks to Bitcoin Cash, Ripple and LTC. If we talk about altcoins, then the attention was attracted by the Eternal token: on September 25 it cost $ 0.26, then on September 28 the cost reached $ 2.44. True, users are advised to be more careful with the coin - there is very little information about it.
For three weeks in a row, gold was trading at around $ 1,200 per ounce. According to Standard Chartered, an investment bank, gold was expected to rise in September. According to analysts, a large number of factors should have affected this: the weakening of the US dollar and seasonal demand.
This month (01.08-31.08) is going to be interesting if you’re planning to deal with USD. Particularly we advise you to look carefully at three main currency pairs that can potentially please investors with their volatility and predictive trend forecasting. This period is likely to be focused at the eternal confrontation between EUR and USD, fueled by the constantly imminent threat of worsening relations between the EU and the US, particularly in the aspect of monetary policy and trading relations. In this case, it is likely that we will see some weakening of the US currency. In the context of the situation described above, it is worth to pay attention to the two other currency pairs USD/CAD and USD/JPY, which have a clear correlation to the positions of the US dollar. The potential profit you can get from the deals with those assets (in case if you use strict risk management and recapitalization of funds during the designated period) can be approximately 4.3-7.1%.
Undoubtedly, certain tensions in US-EU relations should affect the value of one of the primary assets. But you should note that the primary tendency we see when we analyze the chart of the price of gold is the accumulated potential of its growth. It is interesting that according to forecasts of a number of analysts, by the end of the year there is a chance to see a significant (10-12%) price movement of precious metal. At the same time, the forecast for the next month is slightly less promising. In general, the quotes of precious metals will fluctuate in the sideways trend, while maintaining the previous levels of support and resistance - 1180-1220. In the event of a breakdown of one of them, there is a possibility of a short-term movement for an additional 20-30 points.
The movement potential of the price of black gold – is a high probability of a pulsating upward movement in both Brent and WTI standards. At the same time, despite the fact that most private investors tend to bet on a rapid price increase, market analysts advise not to make hasty conclusions, predicting a high probability of short-term ‘down’-movements. So, despite the general agreement of market players on the fact that the cost of oil will grow, the main period of growth is likely to be the second half of autumn 2018. And the next month is more likely to bring some versatile movements followed by short-term correction periods.
The situation with the indicators of the main indices of the US market is most likely to develop according to the outlined scenario - in the direction of further "heating" of the market. According to the market analysts' forecasts, Dow 30 and NASDAQ will reach levels of 25800-26000 and 7500-7650. The basic mood of the professional participants shows the clear intention to maintain the uptrend. At the same time, almost none of the analysts tries to predict the duration of this trend. One thing is clear enough: despite the fact that the asset is already overheated, there is still a significant financial resource that can support further growth. In general, at this moment everything depends on the mood of the market. In particular, every next short-term impulse movement can potentially lead to an avalanche reaction. Although such a scenario is still unlikely.
The situation on the cryptocurrency market will remain tense. At the same time, as usual, its volatility will be extremely high (compared to the traditional markets and assets). Coins from the TOP segment of the market will continue to fallow the layouts of the technical analysis. As for the fundamental analysis – everything will depend on the decision of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dedicated to the Bitcoin ETF. At the same time, the probability of getting a positive decision (in the nearest future) is extremely low. However, that does not cancel the prospects of speculative price movements on the eve of important dates or news connected to this topic. In general, the market of cryptocurrency is still in a downtrend. That means that the price of coins will continue to fall, as well as the overall capitalization of the entire market. Verdict: shorts – for the long-term positions and situational longs in case of positive news.
The EUR/USD pair has the following situation. The euro showed a long decline against the dollar. At the same time, there was support at 1.1615 - 1.1550. In terms of the pair USD / JPY, then the mid-term correction on the Japanese yen approached as close as possible to the resistance level of 110.75. A little higher than the level is the long-term downward trend line of 111.40.
Strongly strengthened the position of correction of the downtrend. Before this, there was a breakthrough of the support levels 1307 - 1296 and the uptrend line of the trend 1290.
The medium-term downward correction for Brent made a sharp jump up after the support level test of 72.35. Buyers expect new historical highs.
In the current month, the S&P500 index has increased. The resistance level of 2790 reacted again, while the uptrend stopped. During the level test, a downward correction occurred. The long-term bullish trend has become weak.
A large number of forecasts accompanied the main cryptocurrency. Thus, some analysts predicted growth in the first half of the month. Other experts said that the BTC would beat historical lows. The result was the following: the long-term downward trend was as close as possible to the historical support levels of 5940-55655, from which the price rebounded twice.
Both standards (Brent and WTI) would become sharply for trading in cause of OPEC disassociations. The Saudi Arabia tries to control the market policy not only using the intraday output, but damping the prices too. Iran, UAE and Kuwait are making the efforts to stop the domination of Saudi view on oil supply. However, Libya, Angola, Nigeria and Venezuela would not change the price policy until the end of June; if only the leading OPEC forces tried to negotiate about the output due to the treat in March 2018. The oil traders to predict the Brent to move between 70.7 and 74.5 to the end of month, WTI is standing between 62.3 and 66.9. Investors are trying to be make the profit from 9% to 13% of trading amount.
The precious metal is under the pressure of Euro and US dollar, especially after the Brexit activation. Anyway, it will try to pull up to the resistance at 1298 and 1315. If it is not to take these levels, the main target to form at supply points 1265 and 1250. The investors expect for downfall of currencies pairs with EUR and USD that makes the gold as a secure asset in that case. That is why the investments into the
Two leading pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are determine to keep the positive trend. However, the prognosis is quite disappointing for the further month. The reason is the rising up of political and financial intensions between White House administration from the one hand and China, EU, UK and Mexico from another. It is worth saying that the crisis between USA and EU after the G7 meeting would make a difficulties into the strategically questions. The investors should weight the risks; manage their own funds and recapitalize of funds would consider the tension on markets.
The main American index Dow 30 stabilized at 24530.0. It is clear to fall after the adoption of US taxation for EU, which is led by White House. That cracked the top position of DOW near the 24750; the index would drive in the channel between 24600 and 24850. The step-over is going to be after the lofting of tempting Fed’s policy and data about the interest rate decision to put on 2% mark. The NASDAQ index would rule the resistance point of 6960. Nevertheless, the investors predicted of fall lower the red line of 7050. The index is under the push threat of US domestic policy to connect with WH actions in homeland actions about hi tech industry, PPI and non-payment activities out of state regulation. The specifically trading with giants in hi-tech sector would make a drop for the index’s numerals as much as the influence could keep.
Bitcoin (BTC) returns to its level of super trading position. Standing over the 6300, the experts predict the movement to the 6900, when the informing to regulate by the irregular acts for cryptoexchanges. After all, the BTC would take a step into the resistance zone of 6400 and 6600 between 11 and 21 June. The first emergent point to take is 6800, after which the movement to 6900 and 7200 would restore the pricing. Ethereum (ETH) becomes to occupy the top-5 position more strongly. The token will look for the resistance point at 525, after the downfall is avoidable to 490. That connects with supply intensions into the ETH trading for the first period of future month. It is also to be said the further restoring tradings after 19 June, if the BTC would come back to 6800. When it would not happened, the Ethereum would fall further to supply 470.